We have not seen such month-to-month variations in sales that we've been seeing over the last 3-4 months in recent history. As to what is causing this fluctuation is unclear aside from June having less business days than May or July in 2019. Even taking this account, the fluctuations are still quite pronounced.
A political interference can cause abrupt changes to the market but there has been no recent political policy change that was designed to affect the Vancouver market. The recent announcement by the Federal government to aid first-time home buyers are designed to help first-time buyers buy into housing under a certain price limit that is too low to affect the Vancouver market.
At this point, it's not clear what the real trend is. Is the Vancouver market returning to balanced territory or is July a fluke? What will happen in August and how does it influence the market going into the fall?
What we do know from the past 10 years is that the sales dropped month-to-month in August 9 out of 10 times. The infamous 2017 was the only year when we saw an incline month-to-month but it was a very small increase. One can easily deduce here that the sales will likely fall to 2,000-2,300 range in August. With TI expected to drop in August to mid-13k (without empty lots), we can expect the SAL ratio to be in the 14-17% (balanced territory) in August.
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