Sales rose to pre-pandemic levels in June and is on track to explode in July to levels that were only seen during the foreign buyer buying frenzy days of the past. Very few could have seen that sales would explode so soon even prior to the Open Houses being resumed in Lower Mainlands. And now that the Open Houses have started again this past weekend, we can only expect the sales to at least be maintained at this level for at least another month. The real concern right now is if the sales are rather too high. If sales remain over 2,000 in August, that is 3 consecutive months of SAL ratio > 20%. This is alarming as SAL ratio > 20% for 3 consecutive months is exactly when the housing prices start to increase.
My July Sales Projection: 2,900 - 3,100
My August Sales Prediction:2,500 - 2,800
New listings returned to above 10-year-average for June and will remain this way in July which is not by any means a surprise as many of the listings that weren't listed in March, April and May are finally entering the market. New Listings in August will break all kinds of record highs as this year's August will not be a typical "Holiday month" due to Covid-19. However, we should see month-over-month drop in New listings from July to August.
My July New Listings Projection: 5,700 - 5,900
My August New Listings Prediction: 4,800 - 5,100
High new listings have added much needed inventory to the market that took a dive during the latter half of 2019 and remained low through the pandemic. However, it remains woefully low in comparison to last year's numbers. And there is no evidence that "buyer's market"-like Total Inventory levels are possible this year. Total Inventory should remain stable in August, rise in September and fall off during the winter.
My July TI Projection: 11,900 - 12,100
My August TI Prediction: 11,800 - 12,200
Months of Inventory has fallen to 5 and is headed dangerously low under 4. We are now at a point where one additional month of MOI < 5 months (SAL ratio > 20%) will cause upward pressure on prices. There are already part of the market such as entry-level detached and attached properties (townhomes, etc) going into multiple offer situations and over-assessed sales. As you can see from the chart, Covid-19 has essentially stopped what was clearly going to be a seller's market this spring but it doesn't appear to have been enough to stop it completely for the year. Grab your popcorns. This should be an interesting August and September coming up.
My July MOI Projection: 4.0
My August MOI Prediction: 4.3 - 5.0
