REBGV April 2019: MOI Projections

Month of Inventory will be reaching a new high for the month of April in decades.  Although there is no significant jump in new listings compared to the 10-year-average this month, the rising month of inventory is being driven by astoundingly low sales.  We are headed for a record breaking summer.  With all data points strongly suggesting a buyer's market, the next interesting marker to look at during the summer is just how much and how fast will price drop.

REBGV April 2019 Projections: Sales and Inventory

With a third of the month left, it is time for monthly projections.  As expected, the sales continue to struggle.  If it wasn't clear already, the data almost certainly shows that we will break the all time low sales record for not only the month of April, but also for the accumulated annual total.

With low sales come higher inventory.  The total inventory rise parallels that of 2008 and is projected to rise 3-4k more by the end of June.  By August and September, we should be flirting with record high total inventory.

March 2019 Vancouver CMA Construction Stats

Construction Starts have fallen from 2,645 in March, 2018 to 1,706 in March, 2019 which is a 36% drop.  However, the Housing Starts is still exceeding Housing Completions which means that current Housing under Construction has gone up again for this month.  The current housing under construction is 41,717.

By Housing Type, the increase in Housing under Construction in 2019 is entirely due to increase in condo/apartment constructions.  There is no doubt that the high number of condo completions will have an impact on the total inventory.  Condo inventory has already doubled year-over-year in REBGV and should continue to see a meteoric rise in 2019.

Meanwhile, there is a noticeable drop in detached family home constructions as there is less profit to be made from new detached builds or large-scale renovations.  Although the number of detached family home constructions are declining, it is not a historically low number and should continue to feed into the detached market that is struggling since the summer of 2016.

Seasonally adjusted total housing starts have fallen from 24,896 to 20,960 over the last 4 months.  Although Housing under Construction hasn't fallen yet, it is anticipated to start falling as record high projects come to completion during the next 12-24 months in the backdrop of declining Housing Starts.

More unabsorbed new projects are adding onto current Total Inventory levels.  This is almost identical to the rise in unabsorbed units during the latter half of 2008 for those looking to spot a trend.

*** all stats provided by CMHC