REBGV July, 2019 Projections: Months of Inventory

This month's MOI will be very close to last year's MOI in July.  This marks the first time that year-over-year change in MOI has been this even since February, 2018.

REBGV July, 2019 Projections: New Listings

New Listings are expected to remain flat month-over-month which is not unexpected as July has 2 additional reporting days in comparison to June.  Similar event occurred in July, 2013 which also had 2 additional reporting days in July versus June.

REBGV July, 2019 Projections: Total Inventory

Total Inventory is expected to fall this month which is the first month-to-month drop for the month of July since July, 2015.  This virtually guarantees that the TI will drop again in August as a month-to-month reduction in July always leads to another month-to-month drop in August.

REBGV July, 2019 Projections: Total Sales

Sales are doing better than expected in July on a month-over-month basis. July will mark the first month since January of 2018 where we are expected to a year-over-year increase in sales in REBGV.

June, 2019 CMHC Housing Data

Housing starts are up another 3,489 in June, 2019 which is more than 2,000 more than during the same period last year.  Overall, housing starts continue to outperform last year's number year-to-date by more than 3,000 and is heading toward high 20k which would be record-breaking.

On this chart, you can see that single detached house starts are relatively low in comparison to last year and it appears to be well-below historical norm.  In fact, we are probably looking at a 20-year low.  Meanwhile, apartment/condo sector continues to see explosion of new builds.  June number is particularly impressive at 2,902.

                                        

Housing completions have increased for the month of June but it is still trailing housing completions year-to-date compared to last year.  One can expect to see further increase in housing completions as some of the record high constructions come to an end.

                                        

Under construction number continues to rise and is now at 44,789 which is a record high.   Although there are numerous developers who have decided to stop building, there are many who are going ahead obviously across Greater Vancouver.  At one point, we should expect to see construction numbers decline but the true effect of the excess apartment/condo constructions should be felt for several years to come.

REBGV June, 2019: Months of Inventory

Given that the MOI is heavily influenced by sales, it isn't a surprise that the MOI has jumped back up in June as sales struggled again in June.  It is anticipated that the MOI will stay very flat in July as both sales and TI are expected to remain very similar to June numbers.

< 5 Months of Inventory = Seller's Market
5-8 Months of Inventory = Balanced Market
> 8 Months of Inventory = Buyer's Market

My Predictions for July: 6.0-7.5

REBGV June 2019: Total Sales

Low sales continue to march into June.  That is now 4 consecutive months of 10-year lows.  Don't be surprised to see a slight month-to-month increase in July as July just so happens to have 2 more business days than June (a 10% difference compared to June, 2018 which is not an insignificant difference).

My Prediction for July: 2,000 - 2,400