The sales dropped to the lowest level since 1982. Covid-19 has effectively suspended what was surely a seller's market leading into spring. We should expect to see much of the same in May as social distancing rules have effectively ended Open Houses across Lower Mainlands and the rest of the country. One can expect the sales to remain slumped in May while New Listings slowly start to pick up.
My prediction for sales in May, 2020: 1,100-1,400
New listings took a major dive in May as Open Houses was essentially banned due to Covid-19. There are now rumours regarding whether Open Houses can resume as BC starts to ease restrictions on social distancing. When Open Houses are officially back on (which could happen in May), we should expect to see some flooding of new listings. Of course, increase in sales will follow this with about a 3-week delay. Thus, I don't expect to see any spike in Sales in May but we may perhaps see it in June.
My prediction for New Listings in May, 2020: 3,400-3,800
The overall impact of record low Sales and New Listings in REBGV has in fact had a negative impact on Total Inventory much to the chagrin of many buyers out there. Rather than leading to explosion of inventory, there is still not enough competition for sellers out there for there to be panic selling. This is the first time that we have seen a negative month-over-month change in Total Inventory since 2009. What is more impressive about this achievement this year is that the TI is already at a low level under 10k. In fact, we are now under the TI level of April, 2018. This is despite the fact that there has been record number of housing completions in Greater Vancouver over the last 2 years. The buyers will want to see TI rise back up above 10k in May which is possible if Open Houses return this month.
My prediction for TI in May, 2020: 9,900-10,200
De-listings dropped slightly in April which is a bit of a surprise given the current pandemic. Most listers have chosen to keep their homes on the market rather than taking it off during the pandemic. This makes the negative month-over-month changes in Total Inventory even stranger. If many more chose to de-list, total inventory could have dropped even more. But this also means that many of the upcoming New Listings may not be so much Re-listings but rather true New Listings.
My prediction for de-listings in May: 1,600-1,900
