Friday, May 31, 2019

REBGV May 2019 Months of Inventory


The Months of Inventory has dropped significantly this month due to an unexpected month-to-month increase in sales during May in comparison to April.  In comparison to other May MOI's, this year's MOI is the 4th highest since 2008 and ends the 2-month streak of setting 10-year highs.

At the end of last month, it seemed very possible that a 2008 or a 2012-like rise in MOI could be achieved in 2019.  However, this is now improbable as Total Inventory struggled to rise in the setting of disappointing New Listings number.

< 5 Months of Inventory = Seller's Market
5-8 Months of Inventory = Balanced Market
> 8 Months of Inventory = Buyer's Market

Thursday, May 23, 2019

REBGV May 2019 Projections



May is typically the month where sales number peak.  However, the month-to-month rise in this year's May is drastically higher than other previous months of May.  Given that no particular political policy kicked into effect these past few months to have caused a significant change in the trajectory of sales, it is a fairly remarkable finding to say the least.  The sales remain low compared to the 10-year-average but the increase in sales does suggest perhaps that the gap between the buyers and the sellers are finally starting to close after a year of significantly low sales and falling prices.  Next few months should distinguish whether this is a one-off event or if the sales return to historical norms.



New Listings are staying along the line of the 10-year average for the month of May.  Given that the New Listings reach the peak for the year during the month of May, this is the last chance to hope for a significant influx of new listings on the market.  Given the current buyer-friendly market sentiment, the New Listings projections for this month is definitely underwhelming so far.  This should be a major disappointment for the buyers who are waiting in-line for a large increase in inventory this year.  


Due to disappointing New Listings number for the month, the Inventory rise is expected to be modest this month.  Any hope for a 2008 or a 2012 type of inventory rise (18k to 20k) has been virtually dashed this month.  However, the Total Inventory remains much higher this year compared to the last.  And the expectation still is that the Inventory could peak in September.


Sunday, May 12, 2019

April 2019 Vancouver CMA Construction Report

                                      

CMHC Report for April shows that the Housing Starts once again exceeded Completions leading to further increase in "Housing under Construction."  In fact, the rise in Housing under Construction has been higher up-to-date this year than last year.


                                      

Housing under Construction is now nearing 42,000 after another month of rise even though it is still lower than a year ago.  With so many new builds yet to enter the market in an already buyer-friendly market, the excess inventory should continue to exert a downward pressure on the market value for foreseeable time.

                                     

Not surprisingly, the majority of the Housing Starts are from condo/apartment builds.  Single detached homes and attached homes are being produced at typical average levels.

*** Source: CMHC

Friday, May 3, 2019

REBGV April 2019: New Listings


New Listings rose in April to a very similar number as last year.  It performed slightly lower than the 10-year average but it wasn't off by very much.  We are not seeing huge New Listings numbers so far this year which means that the homeowners are remaining resilient so far.  We should see New Listings peak this year in May before it starts to decline gradually into August.

REBGV April 2019: De-listings



De-Listings are unbelievably high for the month of April.  As de-listings usually peak in October, we should expect to see high number of de-listings throughout the year.  Time will tell if high de-listings will result in higher New Listings eventually (as properties get re-listed at lower prices).

Thursday, May 2, 2019

REBGV April 2019 Total Inventory


Total Inventory is now above 14k for the first time since April, 2015.  That is a 4-year-high and only rising higher.  Given that this is a buyer's market, the Total Inventory should peak in September.  This means we could see some truly high Total Inventory numbers this fall.

REBGV April 2019 Sales


Sales struggled through one of the all time lows ever recorded and stayed well beyond the 10-year norms.  With sales about to peak in May or June for the year, you may see some really cold sales months ahead during the fall and the winter.  I may have to adjust my Y axis this winter...