REBGV February Month of Inventory

February Month of Inventory (MOI) took a step under 8 months.  Drop in MOI is typical of February as it is generally a seller's month.  As the graph shows, MOI always drops in February.  And MOI almost always drops again in March meaning we should see MOI remain in balanced market territory in March.  The question is whether it will stay there for long past June.

> 8 months = Buyer's Market
5-8 months = Balanced Market
< 5 months = Seller's Market

REBGV February Total Inventory

The rise in Total Inventory this past month was typical for the month of February.  There was no surprising spike in Total Inventory in February but March should bring on more inventory as the weather warms up in Vancouver.

The overall reason for the modest increase in Total Inventory is because both sales and new listings under-shot during this past month (presumably due to particularly poor weather condition Vancouver experienced throughout the month).

REBGV February Sales

February Sales struggled to the lowest level in recent times.  It's unclear how much of the low sales are due to the effect of the weather in February.  If weather played a role, March sales should rise briskly.  If this is part of the pattern of low sales we've seen for the past several months, the sales should continue to struggle into March.

New Listings in REBGV organized by Year

New Listings in January was slightly above the 10-year average in January.  It is anticipated to drop in February due to increment weather.  The data was obtained from REBGV and the chart was originally created by Mark Choi from the Metro Vancouver Housing Collapse Facebook Site.

Total Inventory in REBGV organized by Year

Total inventory is back to normal levels to start the year and we should see the kind of increase in inventory similar to 2008 and 2012 to begin the year.  The data was obtained from REBGV and the chart was originally created by Mark Choi from the Metro Vancouver Housing Collapse Facebook Site.

Total Monthly Sales in REBGV organized by Year

We saw sales in 2018 follow the sales trend of 2012 all year last year.  However, we are starting to see January 2019 stats break off from January 2013.  We are starting lower and dropping further down in February, 2019 so far.  The data was obtained from REBGV and the chart was originally created by Mark Choi from the Metro Vancouver Housing Collapse Facebook Site.

Housing Completions January, 2019

Housing completions remain over 24k and is expected to remain at historically high levels in 2019 despite a slight dip in the last few months.  A recession in 2008 did not cause a drop in housing completion until 2010 as developers were slow to respond to the new market condition then.  History should repeat itself until 2020.

Housing Under Construction

Housing under Construction fell slight in January, 2019 but still remain at a historically high level over 40,000.  It is anticipated to fall under 40,000 in the next 1-2 months as housing starts continue to fall.

Housing Starts updated to January, 2019

Housing Starts continue to fall as developers are starting to delay or avoid new development.  The recent drop in Housing Starts mimic the drop we saw in late 2008 and in 2009.  We can anticipate a further drop in Housing Starts throughout the year.

Greater Vancouver Months of Inventory Tracker (REBGV)

How to read this chart:
Months of Inventory (MOI) less than 5 months: Favours sellers
MOI between 5 - 8 months: Balanced Market
MOI greater than 8 months: Favours buyers

*The data is up-to-date to January, 2019.

How is Months of Inventory calculated?
This is the total number of inventory available at the end of the month divided by the number of sales during the same month.

Grater Vancouver Sale-to-Active Listing Ratio for different dwelling types

Updated sale-to-active listing ratio up to January 2019 with ratio declining for all housing types in January, 2019.

The detached single family home has now fallen under 7.0% and is at a level equivalent to the month of inventory of 14.7 months.

The ratio for townhomes fall into a buyer's market at 11.9% and the condos remains in the balanced market although it is the lowest ratio seen in recent times.

One would expect February to April to be slightly favourable to sellers as this is typically a popular time for a property purchase.  As a result, the ratio may increase as it always does from February to April but one could expect that this rise may not be as high as it has been in previous years due to overall market sentiment.

Less than 5 months indicate a seller's market and more than 8 months indicate a buyer's market.  Months of Inventory rose from 3.8 to 9.8 year-over-year in Greater Vancouver hence going from a seller's market to buyer's market in just a year.  This is the single largest change in MOI since 2010 for month of January.

This places the current MOI at par with MOI in January, 2013 as the 2nd worse MOI seen in recent times.

New Listings in January reach highest level since 2014.  Higher than usual new listings may be an early indicator of a seller panic.  This should be an interesting indicator to watch in 2019.

REBGV January sales are the lowest since 2009.

Greater Vancouver January Inventory (REBGV)

Inventory in Greater Vancouver rises to a typical normal level after 3 years of low supply and is expected to rise further in 2019.