Total inventory is declining in a very typical pattern in November with it finishing just slightly above 11,000. We should see a decline under 10,000 by the end of the year. It's unclear what the new REBGV rule on expirations will have on the final annual count. Sellers are allowed to keep their listings up during the pandemic without facing the typical rule applied to expirations. It is likely that final TI count will fall around 9,000 in normal scenario but around 9,500 with the lenient rule in place.
The high new listings for the last 5 months appear to have finally made up for the lack of new listings in April and May. New listings remain higher than usual although high sales are effectively absorbing the new listings. Despite the high new listings, there are no alarming signs of "deferral cliff" in sight and new listings appear to be shrinking to its typical level. In December, I predict that we will see roughly 2,500-3,000 new listings.
Months of Inventory remains very much in the seller's territory. Only has 2015 and 2017 seen hotter seller's markets than this year in the month of November. The market is being driven by a hot detached market that is coming out of 3 years of bear market. Year-over-year, we are likely going to see about 10% increase in the value of detached single family homes by the end of the year.
