Flashback to April, there was every indication to believe that we were headed for a 2008-like TI increase with record breaking low sales occurring at that time. You will see from this chart that the TI was nearly identical in April between 2008 and 2019. But rather than following the '08 trend, there is now a ~5k difference in inventory between this year and 2008.
With another drop of 400 inventory on the 1st day of August due to month-end expirations, the TI is heading toward mid-13k (without empty lots) by the end of August. If this trend continues, there is a good chance that this year's TI will be at parity with last year's TI by October or November.
I previously predicted that the TI would peak in September this year as this was a buyer's market but it appears that I will be wrong on that prediction. Now, it seems very unlikely that September's TI will top June's peak for this year.
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