REBGV February, 2021

 REBGV February, 2021

Sales are exploding in the entire Lower Mainlands despite the ongoing pandemic concerns in what is turning out to be a real doozy of a year.  We are seeing sales beyond 3,500 which blows past the crazy year of 2015 and is only second to year 2016.  Sales are expected to rise again in March possibly up to 5,000.  There are no immediate policy change coming to stop the runaway train at this time as the government continues to release funds to keep the economy afloat.  Expect massive increase in benchmark price in REBGV of ~15% and FVREB of ~20% over the next 6-12 months.

Total inventory has fallen month-over-month for the first time ever during the month of February.  This is a very significant development and speaks to the real stress on the buyers as they face very limited number of supply while losing out on bidding wars time and time again.  Although we should still some increase in inventory in March, it is expected to be a very mild increase and well below what is needed for the market condition to return to balance.  

New listings rose in February month-over-month which was an expected development in a seller's market.  Sellers realize that bidding wars have returned and that they are excited to take advantage of this development after missing out on the entire spring market in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.  My prediction for New Listings is high.  I expect the New Listings to reach over 6,500 and possibly over 7,000.  However, I also expect the combination of sales/delistings/expirations to be over 6,000 making the Total Inventory rise only very modest.

We've not seen such a low Months of Inventory (MOI) since the foreign buyer tax was increased further in 2017.  The low MOI is only second to 2016 and the trend is expected to fall below 2.0 easily for March.  SAL ratio is expected to rise into strong seller's market with SAL ratio that is easily above 50% in March.  My prediction for SAL ratio for March is 55%.

MOI under 4.5 => seller's market

MOI 4.5 to 7 => balanced market

MOI over 7 => buyer's market