While low 'Total Sales' is the story of the year, low 'New Listings' is the story of the month. New Listings took a surprising nosedive in June which is known to be one of the higher New Listings months of the year.
This does not bode well for the next 2 months as there has never been a month-to-month increase in New Listings in July and August since 2008. This means July's New Listings could be in the 4,300-4,700 range and August's New Listings in the 3,800-4,300 range.
My Prediction for July: 4,600 - 4,950
De-Listings have come off of 10-year highs for the first time since February. Time will soon tell if record-high de-listings over the last 3 months eventually start to effect the New Listings number which has bottomed out during the month of June.
De-listings will increase month-over-month in July before decreasing month-over-month in August as it occurs in almost all of the other years. It is expected that the total number of de-listings will add up to 4,800 - 5,300 during the next 2 months. As New Listings are expected to be around 8k to 9k during the next 2 months, Total Sales during the next 2 months will need to be under 3,500 for us to see an increase in Total Inventory. Barring any surprises, the total sales should be around 3,500 to 4,000 during the next 2 months which will mean that the Total Inventory will be more-or-less stable over the next 2 months.
My Prediction for July: 2,600 - 2,800
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