Historical Year-End Housing Under Construction
Year 2018 marked the first year since 2010 where we saw a decrease in the number of housing under construction. In other words, the developers are finally straying from the building frenzy that has highlighted the last 3 years. This is an appropriate reaction to the Vancouver housing market that has started to cool during the latter half of 2018.
Year 2019 should see further decrease in construction as housing starts continue to fall during the cooling year while many of the current constructions complete.
Up-to-date Average Length of Construction in Vancouver (CMHC):
Detached: 12.5 months
Attached: 12.0 to 12.4 months
Condos: 22.1 months
Estimated Completions of Construction by Housing Types in 2019:
Detached: ~4,500 to 5,000
Attached: ~3,000
Condos: ~16,500-18,000
Total Projected Completion in 2019: ~ 24,000 to 26,000 (projected to be near or at record level)
Housing Completions in 2018: 24,555 (all time high for Vancouver)
Housing Completions in 2017: 21,806
In 2018, record Housing Completion led to roughly ~4,500 rise in Total Inventory in Vancouver CMA year-over-year of which ~3,500 rose in REBGV territory and ~1,000 rose in FVREB territory.
In 2017, Housing Completion of 21,806 made no difference to Total Housing Inventory in Vancouver CMA (in the setting of a higher than 10-year average yearly sales).
If one were to make an assumption (for the sake of making a prediction) that the # of sales, new listings, expired listings, migration new construction absorptions are the same in 2019 as it was in 2018, then one could assume that a projected completion in 2019 of 24,000 to 26,000 will lead to a rise in Total Inventory in Vancouver CMA by around ~5,000 (of which about ~4,000 of the rise will be in the REBGV territory).
Of course, the variations in sales, new listings, expired listings, immigration and absorption in 2019 in comparison to 2018 will impact this projection. And I will be posting to provide regular update on these data.
No comments:
Post a Comment